MILITARY ALERT:
THE ARMENIAN MILITARY COULD ESCALATE THE CONFLICT
BY USING ISKANDER BALLISTIC MISSILES
Dr. Can Kasapoglu,
Director of Security and Defense Research, EDAM
SS-26 Iskander Tactical Ballistic Missile
- On September 29, 2020, the Armenian Ministry of Defense released a statement indicating that since the Azerbaijani campaign has intensified through the use of TOS-1A thermobaric rockets and Smerch heavy multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), the Armenian Armed Forces could resort to “equipment and munitions designed to engage wide-area targets, intended for large and indiscriminate destruction of manpower, and static and mobile property alike”[1].
- While the weapon of choice was not specified in the official statement, the SS-26 Iskander short-range ballistic missile system (SRBM) in the Armenian inventory deserves utmost attention in this respect.
- Militarily, flaring-up the conflict by resorting to strategic weapons would be tantamount to a bold ‘intra-war deterrence’[2] move by the Armenian Armed Forces in an effort to control the escalatory patterns within an ongoing war. At present, the Azerbaijani counter-offensive has managed to accomplish important tactical achievements, and Baku enjoys the upper-hand.
- From a political standpoint, Armenia can pursue such a path only with Russian consent.
- Back in 2016, following the Azerbaijani Armed Forces’ achievements in the April 2016 clashes, Yerevan acquired SS-26 Iskander missiles from the Russian Federation through lucrative loans.
- Following Armenia’s SS-26 procurement, initial writings suggested that Armenia’s strategic weapons arsenal, consisting of the S-300 strategic SAM system and the SS-26 Iskander SRMB, could fall under the control of the Russo – Armenian Joint Group of Armed Forces[3]. The joint army was established in 2016 and was declared active in 2017 upon President Putin’s signature[4]. At the time of writing, the Joint Group of Armed Forces is commanded by Major General Tigran Parvanyan of the Armenian military. General Parvanyan and his unit recently took part in the Kavkaz 2020 Exercise’s episode in Armenia[5].
- The SS-26 Iskander remains the most potent tactical ballistic missile in the Russian arsenal. According to open-source military databases, the missile can fly through a depressed trajectory below the altitude of 50km. During the mid-course and the terminal phase, the missile’s re-entry vehicle can conduct evasive maneuvers up to 30g[6]. Overall, these features would be highly problematic for any air & missile defense system including the S-300 and the S-200 variants in the Azerbaijani arsenal. Besides, the re-entry vehicle can follow a spiral trajectory in the terminal-homing phase which would stress low-to-mid altitude air defenses.
- While the Russian SS-26 baseline can reach 500km to 700km range, the Armenian military has the export variant with a range of some 280km[7]. The missile can carry a broad range of warhead payload options, including anti-personnel / anti-material, high-explosive submunitions & high-explosive unitary, fuel-air explosive, and bunker-buster variants. Open-source writings also noted electro-magnetic pulse warhead options for the SS-26[8].
- If used, the involvement of SS-26 Iskander missiles would mark a whole new episode in the ongoing bonanza. Theoretically, the Armenian Armed Forces can target a broad range of targets, including critical national infrastructure and major Azerbaijani population centers, within the effective range of the missile as illustrated below. Although it remains a low-probability & high-impact scenario, the Armenian missile range can hit Turkey’s 3rd Field Army area of responsibility, resembling Saddam Hussein’s botched efforts in the First Gulf War to provoke Israel for retaliation.
- Azerbaijan has Turkey-manufactured TRG-300 Tiger heavy MLRS (up to 120m range, also deployed in Nakhchivan), Belarus-made Polonez heavy MLRS (up to 200km range), and the Israeli-made LORA tactical ballistic missile (up to 300km range) in its arsenal. If hit by the Armenian missile forces, Baku could opt for retaliating in kind by pounding Armenian high-value targets.
Armenian SS-26 (Export variant, 280km) Range when Launched from the 4th Army Corps.
Armenian SS-26 (Export variant, 280km) Range when Launched from the combat zone around Nagorno-Karabakh
[1] Armenian Minister of Defense’s Press Secretary Twitter Account, https://twitter.com/ShStepanyan/status/1310852449335418880, Accessed on: September 29, 2020.
[2] Andrew Terril, US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, 2009.
[3] Eduard Abrahamyan. “Armenia’s New Ballistic Missiles Will Shake Up the Neighborhood”, October 2016, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/armenias-new-ballistic-missiles-will-shake-the-neighborhood-18026, Accessed on: September 29, 2020.
[4] Kremlin, http://en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/55138, Accessed on: September 29, 2020.
[5] Tass, https://tass.com/defense/1203085, Accessed on: September 29, 2020.
[6] IHS Jane’s, Strategic Weapon Systems – Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment – Russia And The CIS, March 2018.
[7] Eduard Abrahamyan. “Armenia’s New Ballistic Missiles Will Shake Up the Neighborhood”, October 2016, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/armenias-new-ballistic-missiles-will-shake-the-neighborhood-18026, Accessed on: September 29, 2020.
[8] IHS Jane’s, Strategic Weapon Systems – Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment – Russia And The CIS, March 2018.
